Wednesday
Weather
A cloudy old day, with only a little brightness managing to sneak through if we’re lucky. The morning’s cloud will be thick enough to give patchy rain and drizzle. Then the afternoon/evening cloud, although not so thick and rain-bearing, will be lower, meaning that it will be likely to bring occasional mist and hill-fog to the island at that time. The max temp around 13°C and feeling comfortable as the SE’ly breeze will fall very light in the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
Another virtually flat day for surfers (maybe some clean 1 footers in the evening) but nice smooth water for swimmers. Small tides… 7.2m high at 11am and then 3.4m low around 5pm.
Thursday
Weather
A much wetter day (5-15mm expected) and probably a mistier/foggier day too. The wind will be a light force 2-3 SE’ly to start things off and then it will be a moderate force 4 SW’ly to finish. The SW’ly will bring the thickest murk, so that latter part of the day is particularly likely to cause a bit of travel disruption. The moist air will also be very mild though, so we should sit between 12 and 14°C almost all day long.
Surf and the Water
Surf-wise we are looking at some clean 1 footer that might just be rideable on a longboard or SUP. Swimming conditions will be best on the north and west coasts, especially around lunchtime. High water will be roughly 6.7m at 11:45am and low water will be roughly 4.1m at 6pm.
Friday and The Weekend
Weather
These days are really uncertain because the wind will fall very light (after Friday morning’s moderate force 4 NW’ly) and this means that the direction of the flow is likely to change at the drop of a hat. Therefore it’s really hard to pin down when the cloud will be low enough to bring mist and fog patches, and when it will be high enough and thin enough to let a little brightness through. Currently, it’s looking mostly (if not entirely) dry, until we get to Sunday morning. Then we will see a spell of rain in the morning, possibly heavy, fragmenting into showers in the afternoon, before dying out overnight. Although the wind direction and cloud amounts are uncertain, we can be sure that it will be very gentle, almost calm, for much of the time, so whether daily temperatures peak at 14°C, 15 or 16°C, it’s all going to feel fairly pleasant and comfortable.
Surf and the Water
After Friday morning’s winds have fallen light, the water will be super-smooth for surfers, swimmers, paddle boarders and kayakers alike. Waves will be 2-3 feet at times, but always weak and sloppy. Tides will be high in the afternoons… 6.2m around 1pm Friday, 6.3m around 3pm Saturday and 6.7m around 4pm Sunday.
Next Week
Weather
With light to moderate E’ly breezes for the majority of the week, we should see drier air over the islands, leading to big breaks in the cloud sheet, and therefore allowing plenty of lovely spring sunshine to reach the ground. Showers are looking highly unlikely at the moment, so it should be a great week for walking/cycling instead of driving from place to place, and you might even manage to leave your jackets at home. Daily max temps likely in the 14-17°C range. Nightly min temps in the 6-9°C range.
Surf and the Water
It looks as though we will have clean 1-3 foot surf each day. Hopefully the wave forecasting models won’t have got it as wrong as the previous week. However, to be fair, when the Atlantic low pressure system are as shallow and complex as that, then they are never going to be particularly trustworthy. Swimming conditions will generally be best out west, but other coasts will be also be great when the winds are light. Tides will generally be high around dawn and dinner time… medium small to start the week, medium large to finish.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday evening…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway