Sunday
Weather
Basically just a sunny day, the odd puff or wisp of cloud never having any impact. The wind is the only spoiler in the current weather regime, but on this day the wind will be lighter than on other days (force 3 to 4 NE’ly), so the temperature will climb a bit higher (max 18°C in most places, but maybe 19°C along the south coast).
Surf and the Water
We had better get used to flat surf, because it looks like we’re going to have to deal with it for quite a long time now. Swimming conditions will be lovely along the south coast though (and in a few west coast nooks), probably the smoothest water of the entire bank holiday weekend in those locations, so if you’re keen then you shouldn’t put it off. High water will be at 1:45pm (a tiny one… just 6.5m). Low water will be at 7:30am and at 8pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
A little more cloud than over the weekend, but this will only really be in the mornings. The afternoons and evenings should be just as sunny. The temperature will be a number of degrees lower though, only peaking around 15°C each day, and the wind-chill effect making it feel even cooler than that. Yes indeed, the wind will be ENE’ly strong force 6 for a good chunk of both days, only dipping to fresh force 5 at times. It will be very difficult to find shelter because even the south coast beaches will be more exposed than previous days, with turbulent eddies tending to form when winds of this strength blow off the cliff tops. Your best bet, if you want to carry on sunbathing, is to snuggle right in to one of the west-coast sea-walls. And of course the lower temperatures will not affect the intensity of the UV (peaking at 6), so you will still need to make sure that your skin is well protected.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf on the west coast but maybe something rideable from the strong onshore winds up at Pembroke (which should also be good for windsurfing and kite-surfing. Low water will be at 8:45am and 9:45am respectively. High water will be at 3pm and 4pm respectively (6.7m and 7m).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
No great changes… we will still have a brisk ENE’ly flow brining very dry air. However, there will be a slight reduction in the wind strength (moderate force 4 for the most part, occasionally amping up to fresh force 5), so we should see a recovery in the daily temperatures (17°C being the most likely max, but it might end up a degree higher or lower, if the wind strength deviates from the current expectation). I’ll not go into detail about the weekend and the following week, but I will say that change is likely to be minimal and the likelihood of rain looks pretty close to zero.
Surf and the Water
The latest wave models suggest a pulse of 2 foot swell might arrive on Wednesday afternoon or evening. However, the likelihood of this is pretty slim and if it does happen then it probably wouldn’t last any longer than Thursday morning. Better to focus on those lovely swimming conditions along the south coast or in the most sheltered west-coast nooks around high tide (late afternoon/early evening, increasing from 7.5m on Wednesday to 8.3m on Friday).
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening…
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Swim Conditions
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Lihou Causeway