Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
I’ve linked these two days together, because a big chunk of the significant weather will be during the night that connects them. This is because a very potent (for this time of year) low pressure system is going to sweep across Southern Britain, bringing some extremely strong winds and some pretty heavy downpours. Some of these batterings coming on Tuesday and some on Wednesday. So Starting with Tuesday, skies will be partly cloudy/partly sunny during the morning and the afternoon, with just the odd brief shower clipping some corners of the Island. The daytime wind will generally be force 4-5 WSW’ly and it will actually decrease to a force 3-4 SSW’ly, just as some prolonged and rather heavy rain arrives towards dusk. So the early part of the night will be very wet but not windy, but I’m afraid that the second half of the night will be both very wet and windy (force 6-7 SW’ly). By dawn Wednesday the rain will have cleared off but the wind will very much remain, possibly touching gale force 8 in places by lunchtime, then through the afternoon, with cloudier skies and persistent drizzle, the wind will veer W’ly and stay just as brutal. Temperatures will only vary between 16°C and 19°C night and day, but this will be the least of your worries with the trees in full leaf… quite a lot of damage is likely, so make sure you find some time on Tuesday to check your drains are clear and to pack away anything that you care about in your gardens.
Surf and the Water
Swimmers should stick to the most sheltered bays around high tide. On Tuesday, this will include many north and east coast spots, maybe even a few west coast spots too. On Wednesday however, there isn’t really anywhere to recommend except Fermain, but there are so many trees around there, so loose branches will be the main thing you need to watch out for. Surfers will find the best waves on Tuesday evening, between high tide and dusk. High tides will be around 7am and pm on Tuesday, and around 8am and pm on Wednesday. Big tides too, incrementally increasing from 8.5m on Tuesday morning to 9.5m on Wednesday evening (expect lots of water and debris on west-coast roads on Wednesday).
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday will see a gradual relaxation from a showery morning with force 5 NW’ly winds, to a sunny afternoon, with the winds easing to force 4. Friday should then be mostly sunny, with those force 4 NW’ly winds holding steady until they back SW’ly after dusk. Max temps should be 17-18°C in most northern and western areas, but we should easily climb to 19°C in the south and east, maybe even 20°C in Town.
Surf and the Water
Thursday will kick off with choppy 6-8 foot surf on the west coast, but with super-clean 3-4 footers on the south coast. Waves in all areas will be less than half that size by the end of Friday. As for the swimming conditions, they will definitely be best on the south and east coasts. The tide will be high around breakfast time and dusk (9.4m at the start of Thursday, 9.9m by the end of Friday). Low water will be around lunchtime.
The Weekend
Weather
The ups and downs will continue, with moderate SSW’ly winds bringing a mostly cloudy and occasionally wet Saturday, then moderate WNW’ly winds bringing a mostly sunny Sunday. Temperatures still nothing special… peaking between 18 and 20°C by day, falling to minimums of 13-15°C by night.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 2-3 foot waves on Saturday, getting choppier on Sunday but remaining surfable. Decent swimming options will include some north and west coast areas on Saturday, but they will be rather confined to the east coast on Sunday. Tides will remain very large but they won’t be nearly as messy as on previous days. High tides will be in the late mornings (roughly 9.6m on Saturday and 9.2m on Sunday). Low tides will be in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday or Friday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway