Saturday
Weather
Storm Antoni (the first UK-named winter storm in early August would you believe it) will be very windy for us, but not as wet as French-named storm 'Patricia', which we endured on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain-wise, we are just looking at 3-6mm, accumulating from patchy and intermittent rain or drizzle. The wind will be SSW’ly through most of the morning (force 5-6), then W’ly by lunchtime (increasing force 6-7 for much of the afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts to 50mph), before veering NW’ly overnight (reducing force 4-5). Max temperature 18-19°C, min temperature 13-15°C.
Surf and the Water
The first half of the day will have some relatively clean west-coast surf (2-3 feet) but obviously the strength of the wind will be difficult to manage. By the afternoon however, the surf will be much messier (waves gradually increasing 6-8 feet). Daily dippers will find this a difficult day for a swim, so extreme shelter will be required, Fermain and Havelet are the most obvious locations for this. High tide will be roughly around 10am and 10:30pm (9.6m and 9.8m respectively, so the evening high will bring lots of water and debris onto the west-coast roads). Low tide will be at 4:30pm.
Sunday
Weather
A mostly sunny day, with only a little bit of bubbly cloud and the remotest chance of a brief light shower. Winds won’t be nearly as strong as on Saturday (force 4 WNW’ly on this occasion), but they will prevent the temperature from rising too high 18-20°C for the max temps around the Island (warmest in Town). 11-13°C for the overnight min temps.
Surf and the Water
Messy west-coast surf (5 feet gradually reducing to 2-3 feet). The south coast might have some clean little nuggets in the morning though. Swimming conditions will be good on both the east and south coasts. High tide will be around 11am (9.2m) and low tide will be around 5pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
The first two days of a vastly improving week. High pressure will develop over the Channel, giving us dry weather and much gentler winds (force 2-3 W’ly on Monday, followed by force 3-4 SW’ly on Tuesday). The skies will only be partly sunny, so the temperature won’t climb too high just yet… we are probably looking at daily max temps of 19-20°C (maybe sneaking up to 21°C in Town).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be about 2 feet and reasonably clean. Swimming conditions will be good all around the island at times but the east coast will be most consistently smooth. High water will be around 11:30am on Monday and midday on Tuesday (8.5m and 7.9m respectively).
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
As the high pressure system moves eastward, a SE’ly airflow will be introduced to the Island, significantly increasing the temperature, due to the influence of continental Europe. Wednesday will be dry and mostly sunny with just a force 3-4 ESE’ly breeze… as such, the temperature should climb to a max of 23-24°C. Thursday and Friday will probably maintain similar temperatures, as the breeze veers to a force 2-3 SSE’ly and showers try their best to push in from the southwest. It’s very uncertain whether the showers will make any headway against the high pressure system to the east, but if they do then they could be heavy and thundery (most likely on Thursday evening and through Friday). 16°C and 19°C
Surf and the Water
Super-clean 1-2 foot surf, with the slim possibility of a brief 3 foot pulse. Swimming conditions will be best along the north and west coasts, but the other coasts will also be good when the winds are at their lightest. Low tides will be around breakfast time and in the evenings. High tides will be in the early afternoons (steadily reducing in size from 7.4m on Wednesday to 6.8m on Friday).
The next forecast update will be on Monday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway