Sunday
Weather
After the overnight thundery showers, it is possible that we will see a few more during the morning, but the majority of that batch look likely to affect Jersey and Normandy. Whether we get any or not, we can be fairly confident of some sunshine around lunchtime and early afternoon, lifting our temperatures to a max of about 23°C, which is quite a lot lower than Saturday but will still feel very warm because the air is so humid. Later in the afternoon, that humidity, combined with a force 3 W’ly wind, will lead to some very low cloud and therefore some mist or hill-fog. Current expectations are not for the airport to be too badly affected, maybe just a few brief hiccups as the situation waxes and wanes through the evening. Min temps overnight, still on the muggy side… around 17°C.
Surf and the Water
The same kind of tiny, weak but rideable waves that we’ve seen for the past couple of days. Cleanest in the morning, but the tidal movements will perhaps be better in the afternoon. Low water around 10:30am and high water at 4:40pm (6.8m). Superb conditions for swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding all around the island.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Monday will basically consist of a rather cloudy morning followed by fairly sunny afternoon. The breeze will be so light that it’s barely noticeable… force 2 SW’ly gradually veering W’ly, but it will heavily influence the feel of the weather, with that Atlantic influence keeping temperatures around 20°C in most places, only slipping up to 21 or 22°C in Town. Tuesday has had mixed signals in the forecast models. From update to update, it has changed from a day of drizzly showers, to a dry day with partial sunshine. At the moment, it is looking more likely to be the latter, but it might be wise to plan your laundry for another day. The breeze on Tuesday will be a light force 3 WNW’ly, so Town will be the warmest area again, with temperatures much the same as on Monday. (Minimum temperatures 15-16°C on both nights).
Surf and the Water
Monday’s waves will be the same kind of playful slop as Sunday’s… still good for kids. Tuesday’s waves are looking both smaller and choppier though. Smooth swimming conditions on most coasts through Monday but more confined to the south and east coasts on Tuesday. Tides will be low around midday and high around dawn and dinner time (gradually increasing from 7m to 8m).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
With a number of hurricanes/tropical storms on the other side of the Atlantic, computer models are struggling to give a consistent forecast for the path of the jetstream in the latter part of the week. The effect of this in our part of the world is that, from one model update to the next, the low pressure systems and their associated fowl weather are sometimes steered to the north of the UK and sometimes to the south. The current idea is that they will go to the north and leave us to enjoy settled weather and sunshine, so that’s the forecast that I’m going to run with but I’d like you to take it with a pinch of salt because there is so much uncertainty. Assuming we get this fine and dry weather, then winds should generally be very light and temperatures should alternate between daily maxima of around 22°C and nightly minima of around 14-15°C.
Surf and the Water
There are some very promising swell producing storms in the Atlantic, but they are much too far away to send us any waves this week. Swimming conditions will be good on all coasts though, due to mostly light winds. Tidal movements getting bigger each day, with highs around breakfast time and dusk (increasing from 8m Wednesday morning to 9m Friday evening).
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
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