Friday
Weather
A full day of sunshine and with a light force 2-3 SE’ly breeze brining warmer air than the past few days. The daytime max should be about 23°C in most places (but probably 24°C in the north and west of the Island). Then, under gradually increasing cloud, the overnight minimum should be a rather sticky 17°C.
Surf and the Water
Swimming conditions will be lovely, especially along the north and west coast beaches. The surf will probably be 0-1 foot, but there is a slim chance it will be a rideable 1-2 feet. If so then it certainly be clean as a whistle. The most likely time to find something rideable will be in the evening, but the high tide will be quite restrictive. Tides will be high at 7:50am and 8pm (8.8m and 9m respectively). Low tide will be at 2pm.
Saturday
Weather
A moderate force 4 ENE’ly breeze will bring warm humid air, but skies will be rather cloudy (not without a little soft sunshine at times) and that cloud could easily thicken up to deliver a thundery shower at times during the day. However, these showers do not become widespread until the evening (soon after dusk), so that’s when a thorough soaking is really looks quite certain. Daytime max temp… about 22°C in most places, but maybe 23°C in the most southwestern parishes. Overnight min temp… a very sticky 19°C. Likely rainfall totals 5-15mm, but there is an outside chance of more.
Surf and the Water
The surf will only be 1-2 feet at the absolute most, but it will be lovely and clean, so kiddies and longboarders might find a little satisfaction. Great swimming conditions in the northern corners of the west coast bays, and also at some south coast spots like Petit Port and Jaonnet Bay. Tides will be high at 8:20am and 8:30pm (8.9m and 9.1m respectively). Low tide will be around 2:30pm.
Sunday
Weather
As the thundery low-pressure system becomes centred to the west of the Channel, rather than over Biscay, our wind will maintain its strength (force 4) but change its direction to a SSE’ly. This will bring air that is even more warm and humid, but the showers will be heavier and more frequent than on Saturday, so it will all balance out around the same max temperature of 22-23°C. On this day however, we will most likely have higher rainfall total (10-20mm is the probable figure, but once again there could possibly be more) and we should have a slightly more comfortable night (minimum temperature... 16°C).
Surf and the Water
No change in the surf prediction 1-2 feet at best, but if we do manage that then at least the offshore wind will make it nice and clean. Swimming conditions will be best along the north and west coasts, preferably around high tide, providing there doesn’t happen to be a thunderstorm passing overhead at the time. High water will be at 8:50am and 9pm (8.9m and 9.1m respectively). Low water will be around 3pm.
Next Week
Weather
I’m afraid it’s going to feel like Autumn good and proper. A full week of W’ly or SW’ly winds... force 4 at their lightest and force 6 at their strongest. This will bring occasional showers or probably one or two longer spells of rain. There will be some good chunks of dry time in between though, some of it sunny, some of it cloudy, but you will generally have to go to Town in order to feel warm… daily max temps typically around 20-21°C, nightly min temps typically around 15-16°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf should certainly become bigger and stronger, thanks to a number of tropical storms across the Atlantic. However, it currently looks as though the cross-shore winds will make it messy at times. It should still be lots and lots of fun though, whilst the water is warm, and it should also be a bit of a blast for windsurfers and kite-surfers. Tidal movements will be medium in size, with highs in the mid to late mornings and lows in the mid to late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway