Monday
Weather
Gorgeous warm and sunny again. The sunshine made hazy by quite a lot of high cloud, but this won’t have much effect of the temperature, so we expect to peak at 23°C, which is only one degree lower than on Sunday (which set the new October temperature record for Guernsey). The wind will be so light that it’s barely noticeable, just a force 2 SW’ly, therefore the warmest Parishes will likely be St Peter Port, Vale and St Sampson.
Surf and the Water
Clean 3 foot surf with lovely small tidal movements again… low around 10am and just 6.6m high just after 4pm. Super-smooth swimming conditions on all coasts.
Tuesday
Weather
The breeze will be a force 3 WSW’ly, which is important, because areas that are sheltered from this wind direction, will be the places that see the most sunshine. However, the areas that are more exposed will suffer from the low cloud mist and fog patches that blow in. Most of that murk will come in the morning, but there is the chance of a little bit affecting the afternoon as well. Temperatures will likely vary around the Island, peaking at 20-21°C in the sheltered east, but staying down at 18-19°C in the more exposed areas.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 2 foot surf with slightly larger tidal movements again… low around 11am and just 7.2m high at 5pm. The smoothest swimming conditions will be on the east coast but there will also be some favourable moments along the north and west coasts.
Wednesday
Weather
Probably staying dry until late in the night, but definitely a cloudier, windier and much more autumnal day than of late. Those winds being SW’ly moderate force 4, meaning that the most sheltered areas will be around Town and Fermain, so that’s where we are likely to see the top temperature of 20-21°C, while most other areas struggle to exceed 19°C.
Surf and the Water
Surfers will have little more than 1 foot slop to play with on this day (maybe 2 feet early morning). The stronger wind might give kite-surfers something to play with, but it will definitely cause the swimmers to seek a little shelter (the smoothest water will be along the east coast, particularly Fermain Bay). High tides will be shortly before dawn and dusk (7.6m and 7.9m respectively). Low tide will be just before midday.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday will still have the cloudy skies and the SW’ly wind that was introduced on Wednesday. However, there will be a bit of give and take… that wind probably being a touch lighter, but the cloud a bit thicker and therefore more capable of producing rain or drizzle. Temperatures probably not managing to reach 20°C in any part of the Island. Moving on to Friday, the rain will become more frequent and occasionally heavy, and the wind will gradually ramp up to a force 5-6 SSW’ly before veering NNW’ly overnight. Bizarrely, Friday’s temperature might actually be a degree higher than Thursday’s. However, the worsening weather will undoubtedly mean that it feels less pleasant.
Surf and the Water
If there is any surf on Thursday then it will be nice and clean. However, it’s looking most likely flat until Friday, when we hopefully pick up a decent 3 foot swell. With winds a little lighter on Thursday, swimmers will have a greater range of options, but Friday is looking much better suited to windsurfers and kite-surfers. High tides around dusk and dawn, low tides around lunchtime, increasing tide by tide from 8.1m to 8.8m.
The Weekend
Weather
Probably dry throughout, but both days will be cloudy and chilly… the absolute opposite of the previous two weekends. Winds will come from the northwest but they will get lighter as the weekend progresses… force 4-5 decreasing force 3-4 through Saturday, then dropping off to force 2-3 by Sunday morning. Max temps just 17°C. Perhaps more noticeable will be the overnight min temps… 9-11°C on Saturday night, then just 8-9°C on Sunday night.
Surf and the Water
Light onshore winds should make the surf reasonable clean… most likely 2-3 feet on Saturday, then 1-2 feet on Sunday. Swimming conditions will generally be smoother too. High tides will be shortly after dusk and dawn, low tides will be around lunchtime, increasing tide by tide from 8.8m to 9m.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday …
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