Monday and Tuesday
Weather
This is the relatively cold end of the week. Much like over the weekend, we are talking about mostly cloudy skies but with some sunshine slipping through the cracks from time to time. Temperatures only climbing to maxima of 13-14°C on Monday and 15-16°C on Tuesday (falling to minima of around 10-11°C Monday night, then around 12-13°C Tuesday night). The most noticeable difference however, is that the wind will be fresh force 5 ESE’ly for the most part (perhaps even strong force 6 at times), that’s a couple of forces stronger than over the weekend, so it’s probably going to make you wear an extra layer and then hang on to it tightly. Monday will be a fantastic day for drying the laundry, but Tuesday is not so certain… a couple of weather fronts will pass over the mouth of the Channel during the morning and early afternoon. This will absolutely thicken the cloud up for a while, but battling against that E’ly wind, it is really unclear whether or not any rain will manage to reach the Islands. We will just have to wait and see.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be pretty much flat, but the west coast will play host to the smoothest swimming conditions, providing you go at a time that is fairly close to high water (roughly 9m at 8:20am and 8:30pm on Monday, then on at 8:45am Tuesday), because that’s when the sea walls will offer a modicum of shelter from the offshore wind.
Wednesday and Thursday
Weather
Some showers are likely in the morning (maybe with some sunny intervals), whilst the island is most notably battered by a strong force 6 SE’ly wind (maybe even strong force 7 in the worst case scenario). Then through the second half of Wednesday, we will see a more prolonged spell of rather heavy rain, whilst a nasty little low pressure system passes directly overhead. The movement of this low will cause the SE’ly wind to ease for a short time, before it veers to a strong W’ly in the evening and then backs to a strong S’ly by Thursday morning. The weather story for Thursday can then be described simply as hazy sunshine and occasional heavy showers. Both days, although decidedly unsettled, much warmer than the previous few… with daily maxima of about 18-19°C and nightly minima of 14-15°C.
Surf and the Water
The offshore wind should ease a little through Wednesday afternoon, as the swell increases to about 2-3 feet, then the wind will switch to a strong onshore on Wednesday evening, but it should be a clean offshore again by Thursday morning, by which time we might also see the odd 4-foot wave. Tides will be high in the mid-mornings (roughly 9m and 8.6m respectively) and tides will be low in the mid-afternoons.
Friday and The Weekend
Weather
Thursday’s story of hazy sunshine and occasional heavy showers will continue through Friday and Saturday, maybe even into Sunday morning, before we move into a brief spell of brighter sunshine and more definite dryness. Whilst this all plays out, the force 3-4 wind will be dancing all around us… smoothly sliding from a E’ly to a N‘ly through Friday, then a NW’ly to a W’ly though Saturday, followed by a SW’ly to a S’ly through Sunday. Daily max temps slipping down through the mid-teens… 16-17°C on Friday, 15-16°C on Saturday, then 14-15°C on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
A big jump in swell on Friday, with some reasonably clean 6-8 footers thumping through. The weekend also fairly clean at times, but dropping off to 4-5 feet on Saturday, then 3-4 feet on Sunday. High tides will slip, day by day, from late morning to lunchtime… reducing in size 8.2m, 7.6m and 7.1m respectively. Similarly, low tides will slip, day by day, from late afternoon to dusk.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday morning…
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