Thursday
Weather
The rather relentless unsettled weather is set to continue throughout this forecast, so here are the details for the first of a bunch of very similar days… WSW’ly winds will be moderate force 4 to fresh force 5, but there will probably be some stronger gusts when the heavy showers move through. Some of those showers could produce a rumble of thunder. All combined they will probably produce about 10mm of rain (possibly as much as 15mm). Max temps will generally be 15°C but Town should scratch up to 16°C. Overnight min temps will be about 12°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be about 6 feet and a bit ragged in the cross-shore wind. There might just a cleaner wave on the north coast at low tide, but I’m not sure it will be big enough to ride. The west coast should be reasonably fun for surfers though, and really really fun for windsurfers and kite-surfers. Low tide will be around 11:40am and high tide will be around 5:40pm (9m).
Friday
Weather
Another day of heavy showers, possibly thundery, separated by bright or sunny intervals. The wind will be stronger on this day though, so it will feel a bit cooler and less comfortable. To put some numbers on it all… force 5-6 SW’ly winds, possibly cranking up to force 7 after dusk. Temperatures struggling to exceed 15°C by day, even in Town, then falling to a minimum of 12°C again overnight.
Surf and the Water
The surf will jump right up to 10 feet and become marginally cleaner as it does so. On this occasion the north coast should definitely offer some rideable options for those who don’t like it huge. Those strong winds, however, will not be particularly friendly for beginner surfers (obviously fantastic for experienced windsurfers and kite-surfers though). Swimmers will find the best conditions around Havelet and Fermain. Low tide will be at 12:30am and high tide will be at 6:30pm (9.6m).
The Weekend
Weather
Winds will generally be strong force 6 SW’ly, but they might crank up to strong force 7 at times on Saturday, and they might relax slightly to fresh force 5 at times on Sunday. Showers will be heavy and rather frequent again, likely adding up to between 5 and 15mm per day. Saturday, although extremely unsettled, will have slightly warmer air over the Channel, so the max temp will probably be 16°C on that day, but only 15°C on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be pretty huge, but there will be a slight downward trend… 8-10 feet early Saturday, dropping to 6-8 feet by late Sunday. Winds will be difficult due to their strength, but the direction will generally be great for wave quality. If you’re a daily swimmer then you will obviously want to minimise both wind and waves, so Fermain and Havelet will be the obvious choices again. Very large tide tides will combine with the wind and waves to make difficult driving conditions along the west-coast roads just before dawn and around dinner-time (tide heights will generally be around 10m when factoring in all the meteorological effects).
Next Week
Weather
The forecast for next week looks almost like a carbon copy of this current week, with a succession of small scale lows in the first half of the week, leading to some variation in the wind and perhaps allowing some slightly longer pleasant interludes to slip between the episodes of heavy rain. Then, it will most likely be back to the relentless howling SW’ly winds for the second half of the week (with no let-up in the succession of heavy showers. Temperatures much the same as the week we have just had… maybe half a degree lower as we edge deeper into Autumn. Most-likely daily rainfall totals remaining in the region of 5-15mm.
Surf and the Water
As the wind alternates between cross-shore and offshore (sometimes light, sometimes strong) there will be times of day, most days, when the surf conditions are epic. However, it will be a bit of a question of luck whether these align with the limited daylight hours, then it will be a question of planning whether or not surfers/windsurfers can shuffle other commitments suitably to maximise those opportune moments. Waves will probably be on the smaller side through the first half of the week, shrinking from about 5 feet on Monday down to 3 feet on Wednesday. Then through the second half of the week, wave-heights should steadily crank up to about 6-8 feet. Tides will be high in the mornings and evenings, gradually shrinking from roughly 10m Monday morning to roughly 7.5m Friday evening.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday morning…
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