Tuesday
Weather
Not quite as fine as Monday, but still relatively settled, making it a moment to be seized before the extremely severe weather associated with Storm Ciaran through late Wednesday and the majority of Thursday. Coming back to Tuesday though… fresh force 5 WSW’ly winds will bring sunny spells and probably a couple of showers through the morning. Then, through the afternoon, winds will back SSW’ly whilst the island gets soaked by a longer spell of rain. Temperatures firmly on the mild side… 15-16°C by day then around 13°C by night.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be about 5 feet for the majority of the day. Choppy waves in the morning whilst the tide is more favourable (high water will be about 9.8m at 7:45am). Much cleaner waves in the afternoon, but with limited options (low water being around 2:10pm). A good day for windsurfing and kite-surfing. As for swimming, the Havelet and Fermain will be the most sheltered.
Wednesday
Weather
The SW’ly wind will hold around strong force 6 through the vast majority of the day, and it might just nudge up to strong force 7 when the heaviest showers move through. In the morning they could be frequent and heavy (possibly thundery), but they should be much fewer and lighter through the afternoon. Moving on to the night time, it’s going to get really noisy as the damaging winds of storm Ciaran really get started... coming from a SSE’ly direction and getting up to severe gale force 9, making the east coast unusually vulnerable. Boat owners should therefore make suitable preparations well in advance of this time.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be about 8 feet and reasonably clean for the majority of the day. Another great day for windsurfing and kite-surfing (experts only though). As for swimming, once again Havelet and Fermain will be the bays of choice. High tide will be roughly 9.3m around 8:20am, then low tide will be at 2:45pm.
Thursday
Weather
The forecast for this storm has been remarkably consistent, so forecasters across the board have found it quite easy to commit to unusually severe conditions… possibly 20-30mm of rain (a similar total to the previous day) with sustained storm force 10 winds through the morning, SSW’ly veering WNW’ly, then backing SW’ly in the afternoon and evening, as they gradually reduce to gale force 8. Expect a lot of tree damage around the Island, possibly some localised flooding either from the rain or from the morning’s high tide and the huge waves. Needless to say, anything but essential travel is not advised. This is the kind of weather that blows your car door off unless you have the strongest of grips.
Surf and the Water
Enormous waves and ridiculous winds. I cannot recommend any kind of water activity on this occasion. High tide (8:50am) will be as much as a meter higher than the astronomical prediction, due to the huge waves and the storm surge, making this tide just as messy as the ones we had over the weekend. Low tide will be at 3:20pm.
Friday and The Weekend
Weather
These days will have more standard strong to gale force winds (force 6-7, occasionally 8)... coming from a WNW’;y direction on Friday and Sunday, and from a SW’ly direction on Saturday. Weather-wise it will be sunshine and showers for the majority of the time, except for late Friday night through Saturday morning, when we are set to have a prolonged spell of rather heavy rain. Temperatures will likely peak at 14°C each day and fall to 11-12°C each night.
Surf and the Water
Massive surf (but not as ridiculous as on Thursday). Saturday offers the only semi-clean west-coast conditions. The other days might be alright at a couple of south coast locations through. Tides will be high in the mid to late mornings (dropping day-by-day from roughly 8m to 7m) and then they will be low in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway