Monday
Weather
There was already a noticeable change in temperature as we moved from Friday to Saturday to Sunday, but this will be further exacerbated on Monday, when the consistent 10-12°C temperature is made to feel even cooler by the strong force 6 WNW’ly wind. Skies will be sunny at times, but showers will be in the area, some of them probably hitting the Island, during the morning and at lunchtime. However, it looks as though we will most likely stay dry through the afternoon and probably through the overnight period as well.
Surf and the Water
Very messy 4-6 foot surf. Great conditions for windsurfing and kite-surfing though. As for swimming, the only real hope of finding some smooth water will be round on the east coast, ideally Fermain. Possibly also on the south coast around the late morning high tide, either at Saints’ Bay, Petit Bot or Moulin Huet. Tides will be high at 11:50am (6.9m) and then low at 6pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
Tuesday should be mostly sunny and shower-free until the overnight period. We will still have that chilly wind though, this time a fresh force 5 NW’ly, once again making the consistent 10-12°C air feel even cooler than that. The sunshine will be lovely in sheltered areas though, such as tall-walled gardens or down on the south-coast beaches and cliff-paths. If your garden isn’t so sheltered then at least that combo of wind and sunshine will be superb for dying a few laundry loads. Moving on to Wednesday, everything looks pretty much the same, except that the wind will probably reduce to a moderate force 4 NNW’ly… still chilly enough that shelter will be required to feel comfortable.
Surf and the Water
Two more days of very choppy surf. Smaller though… just 3-4 feet on Tuesday and 2-3 feet on Wednesday. Windsurfing and kite-surfing conditions should still be great on Tuesday, then not-so-great but still reasonable on Wednesday. Swimming conditions will most definitely be best along the south coast. Tiny tidal movements, with highs of just 6.3m at 1pm Tuesday and 6.2m at 3pm Wednesday. Low tides will be around breakfast time.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday will possibly be a straight forward day of sunshine and light force 3 NNW’ly breezes. If this is the case then it should feel very pleasant, despite the air being inherently cold… possibly even starting the day with a ground-frost. The alternative scenario is that a small low pressure system will develop as the cold air wafts over the Irish Sea and gets squeezed through St Georges Channel. If that happens then it will probably continue over the Channel Islands area, causing the winds to vary quite wildly in direction, under cloudier skies with occasional rain or showers. So there is a lot of uncertainty about Thursday, but Friday looks more definitely dry and sunny, as a high pressure system pushes in from the Atlantic. Still on the cool side for mid-April, but hopefully sneaking into the teens, with max temps of wither 13 or 14°C.
Surf and the Water
The lightness of the onshore wind will bring a certain cleanliness to the surf, but there is some real doubt about whether there will be any waves that are big enough to catch and ride… Thursday is looking like it will be about 1-2 feet at the absolute most. Friday might just see an increase to 3-4 feet, if we luck into some long-period swell from right over the other side of the Atlantic. Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the late afternoons (6.6m and 7.1m respectively)>.
The Weekend
Weather
High pressure will bring dry and mostly sunny weather, with gentle or perhaps moderate NNE’ly breezes. Temperatures will possibly nudge into the mid-teens, maybe scraping 15°C. Whilst there is nothing particularly impressive about that, the sun-facing and wind-sheltered south coast should really feel pretty lovely.
Surf and the Water
The surf will most likely be flat, but keep an eye on it because we might be blessed with a few longboardable ripples. Swimmers will find the smoothest water on the south coast again. Tides will be high around dawn and dinnertime, and they will be low at lunchtime.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway