Monday
Weather
A cloudier day then the two preceding days, eventually leading to some light and patchy rain in the late afternoon and evening. Apart from that, there won’t be much change in the rather chilly scenario… the air coming down from higher latitudes, on a light force 2 to 3 NNE’ly breeze. Because that wind will be a touch lighter than the previous days, the air will have the potential to feel warmer, but given the cloudier skies, it will end up feeling ,more or less the same… max daytime temp just 9-10°C, min overnight temp just 6°C.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf, but nice and smooth for a cold-water dip (that said, the water will be 1-5°C warmer than the air, depending what time of day you choose to immerse yourself). High tides will be at 6:40am and at 7pm (roughly 8.2m and 8.5m respectively). Low tide will be at lunchtime.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
The lightness of the winds (mostly force 2 N’ly) will compensate for the very cool air that they are carrying. Both days should reach higher temperatures than Monday though. Tuesday will have mostly cloudy skies, with only a few sunny intervals, leading to a max of about 11°C. Wednesday should enjoy mostly sunny skies with only a few cloudier spells, meaning that 12°C should be easily achievable. Showers will come and go through the Channel on both days, but they will be very few and far between, so if they do bump into the Islands at times, then they certainly won’t ruin the day but simply provide a little drink for the crops and the flowers.
Surf and the Water
Possibly just the odd pulse of longboardable ripples, but generally the surf will be flat. The super-smooth swimming conditions will continue to be the highlight, especially when the tide is quite high, around breakfast time and towards dusk (increasing incrementally from 8.6m on Tuesday morning to 8.8m on Wednesday evening).
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Another couple of days that will comprise a mixture of cloudy spells, sunny spells and occasional passing showers. The winds will change to a slightly milder direction, without ever getting too strong, so it should feel quite lovely and spring-like… force 2-4 W’ly on Thursday and then S’ly on Friday. Temperatures return to the teens, with daily maxima of 13°C on Thursday and then probably 14°C on Friday.
Surf and the Water
With low pressure finally managing to elbow that high pressure system out of the North Atlantic, it looks as though we might finally see some 2 foot swell by the end of Friday (if we all dance and pray hard enough). Apart from that, we are looking at fairly glassy conditions on all coasts, making the swimming conditions nice and smooth. High tides will be at breakfast time and around dusk. Low tides will be mid-afternoon.
The Weekend
Weather
Very uncertain regarding the precise details… A low pressure system is forecast by many models to move from just west of the Channel into Biscay, but some models predict that it will move eastwards instead, which would mean that it brings its wind and rain to the Channel Islands. It really could be a weekend of windless sunshine, or of horizontal rain and drizzle. The weight of opinion is currently towards the more positive scenario, so at this stage I would urge you to keep a sharp eye on the forecast, hope for the best, but have a plan-B ready in case we end up with the worst.
Surf and the Water
The uncertainty about the weather translates into similar uncertainty about whether the water will be smooth and idyllic or rough and choppy. Keep an eye on the updates. Tides are much more predictable at least… with mid-morning highs of roughy 8.5m and 8.2m respectively, and with lows in the mid-afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday evening …
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway