Friday
Weather
The first of two super sunny days. This one will have a little cloud at the beginning of the day but little more than that. Winds will be SW’ly, kicking off at moderate force 4, reducing to light force 3 by lunchtime and then light force 2 by dinnertime. Temperatures will peak at a very comfortable 15°C. The evening will be perfect for barbecues and outdoor gatherings, but you will need an extra layer or two, because t won’t be long after sunset before temperatures drop off to just 9 or 10°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be weak and sloppy but it should be big enough to ride (generally knee to waist high). Decreasing winds will make all coasts increasingly smooth for swimming, but the south coast will be a bit choppy whilst those breezes are a bit stronger in the morning. Tides will be low at 9:20pm and then high at 3:30pm (7.3m).
Saturday
Weather
The second sunny day, with a a decent max temperature… maybe as high as 16°C on this occasion. Winds will be SE’ly, this time increasing through the day… light force 2-3 at dawn, increasing to moderate force 4 by lunchtime. High cloud could turn the sunshine hazy at any time of day, but then the cloud will be a bit thicker and lower in the evening, possibly leading to a little rain and drizzle around midnight.
Surf and the Water
There might still be some weak 1-2 foot surf in the morning and early afternoon, but it’s looking almost flat for the late afternoon and evening. Winds might initially be light enough to enjoy smooth-water swimming on all coasts, but as the SE’ly increases, the quality conditions will become confined to the west and north coasts. Low water will be at 10:30am and high water will be around 4:30pm (7.9m).
Sunday and BH Monday
Weather
A low pressure system is going to move from Biscay to Southern Britain. The wind and weather that we get will depend on how exactly it crosses the Channel… quickly, slowly, west end, east end etc. The things we can be certain of are that we will be getting wet at times (probably some rather heavy downpours). The timing and duration of that rainfall is very uncertain though. Wind-wise, it looks most likely that the low pressure system will stay to the west of us and therefore maintain a mild SW’ly flow over the Islands. However, we could be in for a much stronger and cooler NW’ly wind if the low ends up over the eastern end of the Channel. Keep an eye on the forecast updates, for the precise details, but until then it would be a good idea to maintain plenty of flexibility in whatever plans you are making.
Surf and the Water
The uncertainty about wind strength and direction means that the quality of the surf is entirely unpredictable at this stage. However, it does look as though there should be a pulse of rideable 2-3 footers. The tidal range will be a bit bigger though, so there will only be brief windows of opportunity. The lows will be around midday and the highs will be around dawn and dinnertime (8.4m, increasing incrementally to 9.1m).
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
Despite the uncertainty about the details of Sunday and Monday, confidence is high regarding the general idea that the low pressure system will be gone by Tuesday. This will leave us at the southern edge of a high pressure system over the UK. This high pressure system will bring dry and settled weather for the rest of the week. There might be some cloudier days, but there will be plenty of sunshine too. Temperatures should peak in the mid teens Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly the high teens on Thursday and Friday. Winds will be moderate force 4 NE’ly for the most part, but they might strengthen to fresh force 5 at times, which means that it might feel a bit chillier than it sounds.
Surf and the Water
High tides will be around breakfast time and towards dusk (ranging in size between 9.2m and 9.6m). Low tides will be in the early afternoons. Cross-shore winds will man that the surf is a bit messed up, but it should have some regular 3-foot pulses, so there should be plenty of rideable moments. Swimming conditions will generally be best along the south coast, but also in one or two corners of the west-coast bays.
The next forecast update will be on Monday morning…
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