Guernsey Weather Fox

Friday

Weather

It’s been a very showery week. Every day when showers were possibly going to affect the Islands, they definitely did affect the Islands. And on some occasions the showers were so prolific and prolonged that there was barely a dry moment in between them. Friday, however is looking mostly good… a silvery grey sky to start, but with plenty of gaps to let the sunshine through, as it climbs up to and then down from its 1pm zenith. With very light winds indeed (just a force 2 SE’ly in the morning and a similarly unnoticeable NE’ly in the afternoon), we should achieve a very comfortable max temp of 19-20°C. It won’t be until around 5pm (give or take half an hour) that we see a very brief spell of rain, much much lighter than on Thursday. Then we should be dry again for most of the evening, with no further showers expected until much later in the night.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast will host a tiny little longboard wave early morning and then it is looking flat for quite a long time. Swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding conditions will be gorgeous all around the Island, but especially around Cobo during the afternoon. Tides will be 8.8m high at 9:20am then low at 3:30pm.

The Weekend

Weather

I’m afraid this forecast has taken a significant downturn since my previous update. It has been what a flustered weather forecaster would call a ‘very changeable week’. If there’s any solid dry time to latch onto, then it’s going to be through the second half of Sunday. However, given the volatile nature of the atmosphere at the moment, even this is uncertain. If you are an early riser, then Saturday morning might bless you with with some dry slots between showers, but the frequency and intensity of the showers will increase through the morning, such that the majority of the day will be very wet, with large puddles and difficult driving conditions. There will be little change in the situation through Saturday night and then only a gradual relaxation through Sunday morning. Hopefully, if it goes to plan then Sunday afternoon/evening will not only be dry but also brilliantly sunny. All the while, winds will be light, perhaps occasionally moderate, circulating a shallow low precious system as it moves across the channel. For most of Saturday this will be a light force 3 E’ly, then for most of Sunday a similarly gentle W’ly. Max temperatures probably 18-19°C on both days.

Surf and the Water

Surf-sise… maybe some cleanish knee-high waves on Sunday if we are lucky, but it’s looking pretty flat apart form that. Swimming conditions should be good on most coasts, but run-off from the heavy rain may spoil things at times. Tides will be high in the mid-mornings (8.6m and 8.3m respectively). Low tides will be in the mid to late afternoons.

Next Week

Weather

Daylight hours of Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry, as a cool NW’ly airflow triggers showers over the warmer continent in the daytime and over the relatively warm sea water during the night time. Those overnight showers will hit the Islands at times and possibly linger in to the morning rush-hour, but they would only be brief and nowhere near as heavy as those of the weekend. Wednesday (hump day) then acts as quite a dramatic divider on this occasion… an extremely wet day is likely, much like Saturday, as a low pressure system is expected to pass directly overhead. Then, Thursday and Friday are looking dry (all being well), as high pressure develops, bringing sunny skies with light and variable breezes. Temperatures will be on the cool side of average throughout the week, only peaking in the mid to high teens. At the moment, it’s only really Friday that offers the opportunity to hit 20°C.

Surf and the Water

Surf-wise… perhaps some rideable onshore slop in the first half of the week and then the chance of some smaller but more shapely waves in the second. However, at best, it will never be a vast improvement on flatness. Swimming conditions will generally be best on either the south coast or the east. Tidal movements will be very small, with the times of high water gradually transferring from late morning to early afternoon.