Guernsey Weather Fox

Monday

Weather

There won’t be anything special about the weather on this day, except that it is looking like one of the driest days of the working week. Not especially sunny though… a decent chunk of sunshine in the late afternoon/early evening but only a few brief sunny intervals before then. And it won’t be especially warm either… only peaking around 17°C, with quite a chilly NW’ly wind (mostly moderate force 4 but with gusts of around 30mph). To feel more comfortable, it would definitely be best to head to the more sheltered east and south coast bays and valleys.

Surf and the Water

The choppy sloppy 1-3 foot west-coast surf might be just about rideable. Swimming conditions will only really be nice in the more sheltered south and east coast bays. Tides will be 7.9m high at 10:30am then low at 4:45pm.

Tuesday to Thursday

Weather

I have clustered these three days together because these are the ones with showers or longer spells of rain. Tuesday will have a cloudy morning with occasional drizzly showers, carried by a moderate force 4 and still quite gusty W’ly wind. In the afternoon, the skies should become sunnier but the wind will perk up to fresh force 5 or possibly even strong force 6 for a time. The next batch of rain (a more persistent spell) will fall during the evening… arriving around 6pm or maybe a little earlier, then not clearing off until close to midnight. Wednesday and Thursday will have a cool NW’ly airflow, bringing an alternating sequence of bright sunshine and short sharp showers. These winds will be force 4 to 5 on Wednesday, but only light force 3 on Thursday, meaning that that day should at least feel a little warmer even if the mercury doesn’t climb any higher in the thermometers. The top temperatures across these three days should be about 17°C, 16°C and 16°C respectively.

Surf and the Water

The surf will be about 2-4 feet and choppy on all three days... possibly slightly cleaner on Thursday due to the expected reduction in the strength of the onshore wind. Swimming conditions will be best along the east coast on Tuesday, and then also along the south coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Tides will be high at 11am on Tuesday (7.5m), 11:50am on Wednesday (7m) and just before 1pm on Thursday (6.7m). Low tides will be around dinner time.

Friday and The Weekend

Weather

I’m reluctant to make any solid promises, given the recent changeable nature of the weather. However, forecast models have been quite consistent in predicting a dry and settled end to this second week of September. High pressure is due to take residence over Brittany and the mouth of the Channel, putting the Channel Islands under largely blues skies, with only a few puffs/wisps of cloud, along with very light breezes from a variety of directions. This should lead to an uptick in temperatures and at the very least a relaxed and comfortable feeling. Daily maxima of 17°C, 18°C and then 19°C can be expected. The nights might be on the cool side though, with min temps possibly sneaking just beneath 10°C for the first time in a while.

Surf and the Water

The surf will be much cleaner than previous days, but it’s also going to be rather small/tiny… possibly 2 feet at times but more likely just 1 foot or perhaps even flat. Swimming conditions will be lovely though, and this is really the time of year when it is important to take advantage of the preciously warm water (roughly 18°C) before it becomes rather frigid again. Tides will be low in the mornings and high in the afternoons… initially tiny on Friday (just 6.6m for the high), then slightly bigger over the weekend with highs of 7.2m and 8m respectively.