Guernsey Weather Fox

Monday

Weather

It’ looking dry and fairly sunny for the majority of the day… the thickest cloud and the threat of showers not really coming until late afternoon or evening. The showers could then become rather heavy, possibly prolonged and thundery during the night time. Max temps should be 17-18°C, with just a light force 3 SW’ly wind for the most part, making it feel very similar to the previous day.

Surf and the Water

Flat surf but reasonably smooth water for swimming on all coasts except the south… the morning being smoothest of all on the west and north coasts, the late afternoon and evening being more about the east coast. Tides will be high at 10:45am (8.7m) and low at 5pm.

Tuesday

Weather

Another largely dry and sunny day, with winds still relatively light (mostly force 3) but coming from a WNW’ly direction. This will have very little effect on temperature (17-18°C for the max again), but it will probably make the south coast feel more pleasant than the north, which is the opposite of Monday. Once again, the night time will bring the greatest threat of showers.

Surf and the Water

Some choppy 1-2 foot slop for surfers (probably rideable… just). Lovely swimming conditions on the east coast, and not bad along the south coast too. Tides will be high at 11:20am (7.9m) and low at 5:50pm.

Wednesday to Friday

Weather

We are in for some very wet and very windy spells though this period. The difficulty comes when I try to pin down the timing. There will be a very complex interaction between various low pressure systems on Wednesday and Thursday, small scale developments, moving around larger features, rather like atmospheric whirlpools. There will be areas where the flow is doubled and other areas where it is cancelled out. Currently, Wednesday evening and the latter part of Thursday seem to present the greatest risk of SW’ly gales or severe gales. At some point, I expect that a storm will be named, possibly even two consecutive storms. By winter standards, these storms will be relatively normal, but we are in the very early stages of Autumn right now, so trees are very much in leaf and the extra warmth in the atmosphere, means that there is capacity for greater amounts of rainfall. The details will become clearer by the time of my next update, but for now it would be wise to pack away summer furniture and to generally make sure that drains are clear and properties are storm-ready. On the plus side, it currently looks as though things will simmer down on Friday, with force 4-5 NW’ly winds bringing sunny spells and just the odd brief shower. Temperatures will be in the mid-teens by day and in low double-figures by night.

Surf and the Water

Wednesday’s surf should go from 1 foot and clean to 3 feet and choppy. Thursday’s will still be choppy but it will be compensated by some proper size… 6-8 feet. Friday will be similar to Thursday on the West coast, but the wind will be perfectly offshore on the south coast, so maybe there will be a few pristine nuggets to be enjoyed down there. Tidal movements will be small, with highs around midday Wednesday, 2pm Thursday and 4pm Friday.

The Weekend

Weather

After a turbulent week, this looks as though it will most likely be a two-day oasis of calmness, dryness and partial sunshine. The wind direction will most likely be W’ly or NW’ly, so nothing special in terms of warmth (max temps still only in the mid-teens) but the wind strength will probably just be light force 2-3, meaning that it should feel very pleasant and comfortable for outdoor activities.

Surf and the Water

Some sloppy waves for surfers (probably 3-4 feet early Saturday, shrinking to 1-2 feet by late Sunday). Lovely swimming conditions on the east coast, and not bad along the south coast too. Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the early evenings (7.3m and 7.9m respectively).