Guernsey Weather Fox

Thursday

Weather

The strong winds started on Wednesday night, but not quite as strong as previous forecasts had suggested. No that the day is here, we are looking at a force 5-6 SW, increasing to force 6-7 by midday, then decreasing force 5-6 again by dusk. And whilst all those hooleys are blowing, the sky should be a mixed bag of cloud and sunshine, with showers very few and far between. The majority of the showers will come during the evening and the night time, whilst most people are tucked in bed feeling cosy. Temperatures, very much reflecting the autumn weather, with a max of 16-17°C and a min of 11°C.

Surf and the Water

Some lumpy-bumpy but actually quite decent surf… 3-4 feet gradually increasing to 5-6 feet. Windsurfing and kitesurfing will obviously be the activities that really thrive in these conditions though. As for swimming… best to head to the most sheltered east-coast bays, such as Fermain. Low tide will be at 7:30am. High tide will be about 6.6m at 2pm.

Friday

Weather

The wind might still be a relatively mild force 5 W’ly at dawn, but it will pretty quickly switch to chilly N’ly, as a band of squally rain sweeps through. Then by late morning (or maybe a little sooner), we should be into sunny skies, with isolated cumulonimbus clouds marching along the horizon, frequently missing the Islands, but occasionally bumping into us and giving us a brief but thorough soaking. Temperatures will really struggle - only peaking at 14-15°C by day, then falling to around 8°C by night (all the time feeling a few degrees colder due to the wind-chill).

Surf and the Water

A fairly decent day for windsurfing and kitesurfing. Certainly not so great for west-coast surfing, but there is a chance of some clean 2-3 foot novelty waves at the ‘Petit’ south-coast beaches. Swimming conditions will definitely best along the south coast too. Low tide around 9:45am and high tide around 4pm (6.7m).

The Weekend

Weather

Saturday certainly looks like the nicest day of this relatively rotten week. The sky will be sunny and the visibility should be great. However, it will be rather cool, due to the NW’ly wind direction (just 15°C for the max and about 7°C for the min). On the plus side however, the wind strength will be nice and relaxed… just force 2-3, so it will feel much more comfortable than the past few days. Sunday, will go downhill. The question is how fast? We might just squeeze a nice dry morning out of it, with a relatively gentle S’ly breeze (force 3-4). However, at some point, probably around lunchtime, the wind will intensify to around force 6 and spits and spots of rain will begin to become more frequent and eventually quite heavy. The max temp on Sunday probably a degree higher than Saturday, but the wind and weather making it feel much less pleasant.

Surf and the Water

Some sloppy waves for surfers on Saturday but they should be very rideable, probably 3-4 feet. Sunday’s waves will be super-clean but they will probably only be 2 feet in the morning, then almost flat by the evening. Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the early evenings (7.3m and 7.9m respectively).

Next Week

Weather

A very uncertain forecast for next week. Computer models still struggling to settle on a consistent story… chopping and changing between the calmness of a high pressure system and the turbulence of successive low pressure systems. None of it looking very warm though. Watch this space for emerging details.

Surf and the Water

There is potential for some great surf towards the end of the week, but we will probably have to get through a few days of near-flatness before we get there. Wind details are far too uncertain to pin down at the moment, so swimmers will have to wait to find out which coast is best. The tides are nice and predictable though… lows at lunchtime and highs around breakfast time and dusk (increasing from roughly 8m on Monday to roughly 9m on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday).