Guernsey Weather Fox

Monday

Weather

Some brief sunny intervals but mostly cloudy, with an increasing likelihood and intensity of showers. By late afternoon, we are probably going to see frequent heavy downpours, quite possibly with some thunder and lightning then and through much of the evening. It won’t be a cold day though, with a similarly mild max to that of the previous day… 17°C. Winds will be moderate force 4 S’ly for the most part. However, when those showers become most intense, we will see large fluctuations between light force 2 and fresh force 5 with some much stronger gusts.

Surf and the Water

Super-clean 5-6 foot surf. Some really classic west-coast conditions. Possibly windy enough for a few kite-surfing and windsurfing too, but certainly not so windy that it spoils it for the wave-surfing. If you’re swimming, then high water will be best along the north coast and in the more sheltered west-coast bays. High will be about 8.5m at 9:30am. Low will be at 3:50pm.

Tuesday

Weather

A repeat story, in terms of weather and temperature (showers most frequent and heavy in the latter part of the day… temperatures peaking around 17°C). The wind will be stronger though, SSW’ly and consistently at the top end of fresh force 5, possible ramping up to strong force 6 at times.

Surf and the Water

A slight reduction in the surf… temporarily down to around 4 feet, but still lovely and clean at the standard west-coast locations. A little more wind on this day, to make the kite-surfers and windsurfers smile. Swimming conditions will once again be best in those sheltered western and northern locations, and this time along the east coast too. High tide will be about 8.2m at 10am. Low tide will be at 4:15pm.

Wednesday and Thursday

Weather

The ex-hurricane Kirk (now an extremely wet and windy mid-latitude depression) has its sights firmly set on France. I’m afraid to say that they can expect damaging winds and major flooding in places. We, however will probably be mostly dry through most of Wednesday and then just catch a few briefly-heavy showers on Wednesday night and on Thursday. That said, the prolonged heavy rain that will be so troublesome over Northern France on Wednesday, will be a little too close for comfort, so it would be wise to be prepared for the possibility of our Wednesday being a bit wetter than I just described. Winds will be NNE’ly on Wednesday… somewhere between light force 2 and moderate force 4. Then on Thursday, they will be NNW’ly… moderate force 4 or perhaps occasionally fresh force 5. Temperatures on the low side…peaking at 14-15°C on Wednesday, then just 13°C on Thursday.

Surf and the Water

The detail of the wind around ex-hurricane Kirk (possibly to be renamed as a new and seperate storm by MeteoFrance), will determine the quality of the surf. It looks as though winds will be NNE’ly on Wednesday and NNW’ly on Thursday (now that the storm is almost certainly moving over Central France rather than the English Channel). They might be as light as force 2-3 on Wednesday, which would mean that the west-coast waves would be about 4 feet and clean. However there is a chance that the wind will be force 4-5 and those waves would therefore be spoilt. On Thursday however, when the waves become 8 feet and very powerful, then the south coast will probably be the focus. It’s always very fickle and a bit of a novelty down there, so nothing is guaranteed (except to say that the west-coast will be far too big and far too messy for most surfers). Tides will be high in the late mornings (7.9m and 7.3m respectively), then they will be in the late afternoon/early evening.

Friday and The Weekend

Weather

This will be the settled end of the week, with only the odd shower rattling around the area, so probably passing by in the distance and leaving the Islands dry. Winds will be relatively light, but varying in direction, as a very week high pressure system wobbles over the general area… most probably variable force 2-3 on Friday and Saturday, then force 3-4 SSE’ly on Sunday. Temperatures peaking at 14°C, 15°C and 16°C respectively.

Surf and the Water

Surfers will probably find some moments of reasonable quality in a hotch-potch of residual swell and a variety of wind directions. My best guess is about 3-4 feet on Friday, 2-3 feet on Saturday and 0-1 feet on Sunday. All of it a bit sloppy and random, which will call for keen eyes, agile bodies and positive attitudes. Tidal movements will all be very small and the highs will be at 12:30pm Friday, 2:20pm Saturday and 4pm Sunday.