Friday
Weather
Cold air will sit beneath mostly cloudy skies… the temperature barely changing from 5-6°C. However, winds will be so light that it shouldn’t feel too uncomfortable if you are out walking or cycling (providing your wear a few good layers). That breeze generally coming from the east, but only wafting around force 2, so not really making any one part of the Island feel nicer than another.
Surf and the Water
Small long period waves might produce something on the reefs, but they certainly won’t produce anything but an occasional surge on the beaches. Swimming conditions should be smooth, especially out west, and the contrast of air to water temperature will actually make it more comfortable when submerged. Low water will be at 10:45am. High water will be about half an hour after dusk (8.5m).
The Weekend
Weather
Milder air will steadily return to the Island, brought by the Atlantic influence from the western half of the compass… Saturday’s breeze will be a force 3-4 NW’ly, then Sunday’s will change to a straight W’ly. The initial change, on Saturday morning, will lead to quite a lot of patchy light rain. Then later in the day and through Sunday, once settled in the new airmass, we should see slightly thinner cloud, which will occasionally break up to let some brightness through. Temperatures should rise to 9 or 10°C on Saturday, then drop to 7 or 8°C overnight, before rising to 11 or 12°C on Sunday. The east coast (especially Town) will generally feel the most comfortable, although the south coast will also feel good on Saturday.
Surf and the Water
Regrettably the surf forecast has deteriorated to sloppy choppy 2-foot waves. Swimming conditions will be best on the south and east costs on Saturday, then just the east coast on Sunday. Tides will be high shortly before dawn and after dusk (varying between 8.6m and 8.9m). Low tides will be at lunchtime.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Milder winds from a SW’ly direction on Monday (still force 3-4), and then a straight S’ly on Tuesday (gradually increasing to force 5 by evening and then maybe strong force 6 overnight). This will feel very different from the cold E’ly winds of the previous week, mainly on account of temperature… hovering between the nightly mins of 8-9°C and the daily max of 11-12°C. Skies will be partly sunny each day but, considering how close we are to the solstice, that sunshine will be very weak indeed (probably brightest at sunrise). The odd light shower is possible but the vast majority of the day should be nice and dry.
Surf and the Water
Clean waves on the west coast, but the size is uncertain... somewhere between 1 and 3 feet, hopefully the latter. The uncertainty is due to the swell direction and brevity (a fast moving storm on the Atlantic, that moved from the Azores to the Hebrides, spending very little time perfectly west of the English Channel. Swimming conditions will be good in the sheltered nooks of all coasts except the south. Tides will be high around dawn (roughly 9.1m) and low in the early afternoons.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
Fresh to strong winds (SW’ly Wednesday, W’ly Thursday, then NW’ly Friday), will bring a story that can be simply summarised as sunshine and showers, with temperatures on the mild side of the December average. The east coast always nice and sheltered, the west and north coasts partially sheltered on Wednesday, the south coast fairly sheltered on Friday.
Surf and the Water
Generally messy surf (hopefully not too bad on Wednesday), but certainly not flat anymore… ranging between 3 and 6 feet, so definitely rideable. However, the happiest water-users will probably be the windsurfers and the kitesurfers. As for the swimming conditions, the east coast always nice and sheltered, the west and north coasts partially sheltered on Wednesday, the south coast fairly sheltered on Friday. Tides will be high around breakfast time and low in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will on Monday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway