### Tuesday
Weather
Another grey day I’m afraid, with some occasional drizzle thrown in, along with a slight increase in the wind. It won’t be particularly strong on this day, only a force 3-4 SSW’ly, but this will certainly be the most noticeable change after the ambient calmness of the previous week. Temperatures will be much the same as on Sunday, hovering around 9°C by day and 8°C by night.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 2 foot surf on the west coast. Good cold-water swimming conditions on all coasts except the south. Tides will be low soon after midday and high around 6am and 6:15pm (roughly 8.2m).
New Year's Eve
Weather
A warmer and sunnier day, but also a windier day… still coming from a SSW’ly direction, but increasing from force 4-5 at dawn to force 5-6 by dusk, it will certainly be best to seek shelter, if you wish to make the most of the 10-11°C mildness. The best places to do this will likely be Pleinmont in the west and Fermain or Town in the east.
Surf and the Water
Sloppy 3-4 foot surf on the west coast. Reasonable cold-water swimming conditions in sheltered parts of the west and north coasts, but best of all on the east. Tides will be high at 6:35am (roughly 8.6m) then low at 1pm.
Wednesday and Thursday
Weather
These will be the windiest and wettest days, but the question is just when the onset will occur and what the duration and therefore the accumulation will be. It all depends on the precise position of a deep low pressure system over Northern Britain. Most computer models agree on the general story but some of them keep the storm centre at a distance (Scotland), whilst others take the storm centre over Central/Northern England. For the UK, this will affect the extent and depth of snow-cover. For the Channel Islands, well and truly on the warm side of the weather system, the question will only really relate to rainfall. Winds will be strong force 6-7 (perhaps briefly gale force 8) SW’ly on Wednesday, veering NW’ly by the end of Wednesday night, then force 4-5 NE’ly by the end of Thursday night. In the case of the storm centre being more distant then the rain will be on and off from late Wednesday evening until late Thursday night. In the case of the storm centre being closer then the rain will be heavier and falling more intensely for a time around dusk on Wednesday late afternoon/evening and then at the same time on Thursday. Either way, Wednesday looks relatively warm, hovering around 11-12°C, then Thursday relatively cool, hovering around 8°C.
Surf and the Water
Some pretty big surf… 6-8 feet on the west coast, likely quite clean on Wednesday and then messy on Thursday. Wednesday certainly looks good for windsurfing and kitesurfing. Thursday might be too but it’s much less certain at this stage. Tides will be high around dawn (8.9m and 9m respectively) and then low in the early afternoons.
Friday and The Weekend
Weather
There is a chance of some prolonged rain on Friday, there is much uncertainty about that at the moment. Otherwise, we are probably looking at three days of chilly NE’ly breezes (moderate force 4), bringing a mixture of cloudy and sunny skies, with daily max temps of around 6-7°C and nightly min temps of around 4°C .
Surf and the Water
Cleanish surf, dropping daily from 3 feet on Friday to 2 feet on Saturday then just 1 foot on Sunday. Smooth swimming conditions will be easiest to find on the south coast, and in the northern corners of the west-coast bays. Tides will be high around breakfast time (8.9m, 8.7m and 8.5m respectively). Low tides will be in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will on Thursday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway