Wednesday
Weather
A thoroughly wet and cold day, starting with rain and a 6 or 7°C temperature. Finishing likewise. The only moment of difference is around late morning and lunchtime, when the temperature will drop to 3 or 4°C and the rain will quite possibly turn to sleet. Wind wise, the direction can broadly be described as E’ly all day, but the strength will vary… moderate force 4 around dawn and dusk, but getting up to about strong force 6 at the time when it is also coldest and possibly sleety. The rain will persist through most of the night time as well, only petering out a few hours before dawn, with clear skies and light winds to follow, meaning that the temperature will tumble to 3 or 4°C again, and it’s quite likely that a ground frost will develop in one or two places.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 1-2 feet and clean. The strong wind and cold weather will mean that only the most desperate people will even consider it though. Thursday looks pretty good, so maybe better to stay cozy instead. Low tide will be about an hour before dawn. High tide will be about 7.8m just before 1pm.
Thursday
Weather
In such an up and down week, this day will definitely be one of the high points, with a light force 3 NNW’ly breeze bringing mostly sunny skies and excellent visibility. The air won’t be warm though, with a max of only 8°C, it would still be wise to take your hat and gloves when you head out. As for the night time, that will start of pleasantly calm and clear, but it will pretty soon turn cloudy and then it will be wet and wind again by dawn Friday. The minimum temperature of 3-4°C will come in the evening whilst skies are partially clear. A ground frost is possible again, but it would only be brief.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 4-6 feet and semi-clean at some west-coast spots. There could also be some fairly decent 3 foot south-coast surf, but this is always a bit of a gamble. The south coast should certainly be nice for winter swimmers though. Tides will be low at 8am and then 7.5m high just after 2pm.
Friday
Weather
Temperatures will creep up as we go through the day, but it won’t be anything to do with sunshine, because there won’t be any of that… only grey skies, rain and drizzle I’m afraid. The wind will be a force 5-6 SE’ly to kick off (with a dawn temperature of 5-6°C). By dusk, the wind will be a force 4 S’ly and this will bring air of around 8 or 9°C to the Islands (along with the risk of some mist and hill fog).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be even bigger and cleaner on this day. The weather will be pretty ugly but on this occasion I’m sure that experienced surfers will be out there like a shot. Tides will be low around 9:30am and high around 3:30pm (7.6m).
The Weekend
Weather
There has been a lot of change in the forecast lately, from one computer model update to the next. This means that it would be wise not to trust the forecast with your heart and soul… the usual mantra of hope for the best but prepare for something a little worse. However, with that caveat safely stated, I’ll go on to say that the latest expectation is for both Saturday and Sunday to be dry and partly (perhaps mostly) sunny, with light to moderate SE’ly breezes and temperatures around the January average… around 8 or 9°C for the daily maxima and around 5°C for the nightly minima. Given the expected wind direction, this should be a particularly nice weekend to spend on the west coast.
Surf and the Water
Most likely (but not definitely) more clean west-coast surf… first estimate is 6-8 feet on Saturday, then 4-5 feet on Sunday. If the weather is as good as currently expected then winter swimmers will also be out there in force, with the Pembroke and L’Ancresse probably offering the smoothest conditions, especially towards sunset. Tides will be low around 10:30am and 11:30am respectively. High tides will be around 4:30pm and 5:30pm respectively (7.6m and 7.9m).
The next forecast update will on Friday…
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