Thursday
Weather
Just like the past 4-5 days, the brisk NE’ly wind will make thing feel rather cool, even though the temperature is creeping up by fractions of a degree each day. Skies will likely be cloudiest in the morning and sunnier in the afternoon. It will most likely be dry throughout, but there is the smallest chance of a brief light shower around breakfast time. Those NE’ly winds will be light force 3 around breakfast time and then again in the evening. However, between those times, it will be moderate force 4, perhaps even nudging up to fresh force 5 around lunchtime. Temperatures will peak around 13-14°C by day and then fall to a minimum of 9°C overnight.
Surf and the Water
Surfers remain under the curse of flatness, whilst swimmers will continue to seek shelter from the NE’ly wind. Tides will be worth monitoring, because shelter (along the south coast and in one or two cosy nooks along the west coast) will always be best when the tide is high. Low water will come first, roughly at 11am. Then high water will be 7.5m at roughly 5pm.
Friday (Liberation Day)
Weather
A fabulous day of almost unbroken sunshine. Perfect of all the outdoor celebrations. That said, the brisk NE’ly wind (once again at the high end of a force 4) will make it feel cool in exposed areas, which does mean that lots of sunburn will be happening without people realising. The UV index will peak at the top end of a 6, so burn-time will be pretty quick between roughly 10:30am and 3:30pm. Max temperatures will probably be 14-15°C, maybe just reaching 16°C between Forest and Torteval.
Surf and the Water
No change from Thursday, with respect to the conditions on the water. However, the increased sunshine and temperatures will make the swimming experience more attractive and pleasant. High water will be around dawn and dinnertime (7.7m and 7.9m respectively). Low water will be just shy of midday.
The Weekend
Weather
Rather like last weekend, change will come in the form of thundery showers. However, these situations area always hit and miss. Last weekend, all Islands in Guernsey’s Bailiwick got clobbered whilst Jersey dodged the bullet. This Weekend, the situation might or might not be reversed. Saturday will certainly be the warmest day of the week, with the breeze veering to an E’ly direction and the sun blazing until at least mid-afternoon. The thunderstorms will push northwards from Brittany during the evening, possibly rumbling and deluging over us around midnight. Then Sunday, will be one of those cloudier and more humid days, with a few showers likely, but probably not so potent. Sunday’s breeze will be a lighter S’ly, so it probably won’t feel any cooler than Saturday, even though the max will be slightly lower… Saturday peaking around 18°C, then Sunday peaking around 17°C.
Surf and the Water
Possibly a pulse of rideable surf, but if this is the case then it will be essential to pounce on the higher end of the tide. The wind will be stronger on Saturday (still NE’ly) so there will be greater requirement for swimmers to seek shelter. Obviously kitesurfers and windsurfers will be doing the opposite of that. Just to remind you, those sheltered spots will be at the eastern ends of the south-coast bays and at the northern ends of the west-coast bays. Tides will be high between 6 and 7 o’clock (morning and evening), creeping up from 8m to 8.6m. Low tides will be at lunchtime.
Next Week
Weather
Slack winds and sunshine will make Monday and Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) feel very pleasant, but thunderstorms will form daily over France and there is the slight chance of them drifting our way in the evenings. This really is only the smallest chance though. Thew rest of the week then looks likely to be similar to our current state of affairs… dry and mostly sunny but compromised by a brisk and pesky NE’ly wind. The temperature trend should initially be upwards… peaking at 16-17°C on Monday then 17-18°C on Tuesday. But from Wednesday onward, we will most likely go down by a degree or two per day.
Surf and the Water
The surf will certainly be flat until at least Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, there is a significant chance that swell return to the Islands, but it is far too uncertain to put any detail on it just yet. Tides will be high (ranging between 8.1m and 8.7m) around breakfast time, and low in the early to mid-afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday evening or on Sunday morning…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
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