Monday to Wednesday
Weather
All three days will be cloudier than the weekend, but there will be some sunny spells and the NE’ly winds will be a tad lighter. In terms of temperature, this means that it will probably be slightly cooler than Sunday, but hopefully at least as warm as Saturday, which you may remember got scuppered by all that smoke in the high atmosphere. Max temps will probably be around 22°C each day, and min temps roughly 17-18°C for the minima. Will it be dry though? This is the greatest uncertainty… Monday will have some very light showers in the area, falling from very high cloud so mostly evaporating on the way down. Tuesday will then have a scattering of heavier thunderstorms over the Channel and nearby France, but it’s always very hit-and-miss whether or not they will actually bump into the Island. Wednesday will then see those thunderstorms retreat southwards, so the threat will probably be smallest of all on that day.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be absolutely flat as a pancake, with Vazon having even smaller ripples than Fermain. The wind could be sufficient for a decent kite-surfing session at times (possibly). Swimming conditions will be best in the northern corners of the west-coast bays or in the eastern corners of the south-coast bays. Small tidal movements, with highs in the late afternoons. Low water will be at 10am and 11:30pm respectively.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Probably dry and increasingly sunny, with the NE’ly breeze relaxing from force 3-4 to force 2-3 by the end of Thursday, then falling almost calm through Friday. This means that the temperature will probably peak at 22°C on Thursday, but maybe climb as high as 24°C on Friday.
Surf and the Water
We might see the first long-period waves from Hurrican Erin arrive by Thursday evening, but they most probably won’t show up until Friday. Size and quality are uncertain at the moment, but something like '4 feet and clean’ is most probable. The reefs generally habndling it better than the beaches, but those spots obviously aren’t suitable for beginners. Swimmers should also take care when that strong swell kicks in, because large surges of water will not only claim your towels from the beach but also generate rip currents that are stronger than usual. High tides wil be at breakfast time and dinnetime (increasing incrementally from 7.9m to 8.9m). Low tides will be at lunchtime.
The Weekend
Weather
With the weather expected to stay sunny and dry, and the wind veering SE’ly, it looks as though we could pull in some French heat and jump into the mid to high twenties. The weekend just gone didn’t deliver as promised though, so I’m hesitating to commit to such an exciting forecast, especially as there is a significant hurricane out there in the Atlantic (Erin). This could easily put a kink the jetstream and slightly affect the position of the high pressure system that is currently expected to be sitting over the Channel Islands. I’ll be keeping a sharp eye on it, so watch this space.
Surf and the Water
The surf will probably be 2-3 feet and clean for the majority of the weekend, maybe a little bigger on Saturday morning. Swimming conditions will be good all around the Island, but watch out for potentially strong currents on the west coast. High tides wil be at breakfast time and towards dusk (increasing incrementally from 8.9m to 9.4m). Low tides will be in the early afternoons.
The next forecast update will most likely be on Wednesday…
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