Wednesday and Thursday
Weather
Just like the last couple of days, the sky will be mostly sunny, with a scattering of silver-lined cotton-wool clouds, due to the cool clear air brought in by the force 3-4 NE’ly breeze. A brief light shower isn’t completely out of the question on either morning, but it is unlikely. The daily maxima will be 15-16°C, but it will feel cooler than that in exposed areas. The warmest feeling areas to go for a good walk (or maybe a swim) will be along the south coast. Overnight minimum temperatures will be 11-12°C shortly before dawn.
Surf and the Water
There may be some 1-2 foot waves at best around Vazon, but the widn direction will probably spoil it for surfers. That wind direction should also be considered by swimmers, because they will find that the waters of the south coast are substantially smoother than elsewhere around the Island. Tides will be high at 8:50am Wednesday (9.1m) and at 9:15am Thursday (8.9m).
Friday
Weather
Winds will be almost flat calm in the morning and then just light force 3 SE’ly in the afternoon. High cirrus cloud will gradually spread in, turning the sunshine hazy and then becoming a bit thicker towards evening. Temperatures should climb slightly higher on this day, reaching a widespread 17°C, but most importantly feeling warmer than the previous days (in all areas), due to the lack of wind. Night time temperatures will be higher too, due to the cloud cover, probably not falling any lower than 14°C.
Surf and the Water
Hopefully the waves will be big enough to surf. They will most likely only be 1 foot, but there’s a slim chance of 2 feet. If that is the case then the windless glassy conditions will be as perfect for surfing as they are for swimming. Tides will be 8.5m high at 9:40am and then low around 4pm.
The Weekend
Weather
The Saturday forecast has improved quite a lot, due to a slight shift in the expected position of ex-hurricane Gabrielle in the Atlantic. This means that the weather-front previously expected to cross the Islands, is now expected to hover around the mouth of the Channel, only giving us cloudy skies rather than rain, before retreating away northwestwards. Skies will likely become sunny by Saturday evening and then, remain mostly sunny through Sunday. The winds will be force 3 SE’ly on Saturday and then force 4 NE’ly on Sunday. This means that the air will be inherently warmer on Saturday, but sunnier on Sunday and there, which will probably result it two days with the same max temp of roughly 18°C.
Surf and the Water
Ex hurricane Gabrielle is now expected to take a much more southern track, sending the bulk of her swell to Portugal and Spain. Here in the Channel, we can only expect the waves to be about 2-3 feet and clean on Saturday, then 4 feet and a bit choppy on Sunday. Not what we were hoping for, but definitely better than nothing. Tides will be 8.2m high at 10am Saturday, then 7.4m at 10:30am Sunday. Low tides will be in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Friday morning…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway