Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday is a simple story of hazy sunshine and mild air, brought to the Islands by a gradually strengthening S’ly breeze (force 2 at dawn, force 4 by dusk). 19°C for the max temp. Friday is a bit more important to talk about, because the last time I updated my forecast, there low-pressure system which has now been named Storm Amy was not expected to be nearly so intense. It still isn’t really a Channel Island issue, with its centre currently targeted for the Outer Hebrides. However, the wind will be much stronger for us than previously expected, starting with a force 4-5 SW’ly daytime Friday, then increasing to strong force 6 on Friday night. Rain-wise, there will be a series of weather fronts, probably some murky drizzle around dawn and early afternoon, followed by some rather heavy rain around midnight. Friday max 18°C.
Surf and the Water
Clean surf both days (especially clean on Thursday). Likely 2-3 feet on Thursday and 3-4 feet on Friday. Good swimming conditions on Thursday, then great windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions on Friday. Tides will be low in the mid-mornings and high in the mid-afternoons (6.6m Thursday and 7.4m Friday).
Saturday
Weather
A much sunnier day than Friday, but there will be one or two brief showers and the wind will be howling so it won’t feel too great. That wind will be a strong force 6 and very gusty WNW’ly through the daytime, then relaxing to moderate force 4 during the night time. Max temp 16°C in most places but maybe 17°C in Town. Then a chilly minimum of about 10-11°C right at the end of the night.
Surf and the Water
Very messy 4-6 foot surf. But great conditions for windsurfing and kitesurfing. Fermain will be the place to go if you want to swim. The tide will be low at 11:30am and high at 5:30pm (8.2m).
Sunday
Weather
Definitely the better weekend day (although the windsurfers would probably prefer Saturday). The morning will be a story of sunshine and showers, but there’s a high chance that those showers will all miss us, and just cruise by in the distance. The afternoon will then be dry but probably a little cloudier. The decreasing wind will be the main thing to be glad of… starting the day with a WNW’ly, at the top end of moderate force 4, then finishing the day with just a light force 3 WSW’ly. Daytime max 16°C, overnight min 12°C.
Surf and the Water
Messy 4-6 foot surf again. The windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions will be best in the morning, and the swimming conditions will once again be best along the east coast. The tide will be low just after midday on Sunday, and the highs will be a shortly before dawn and a shortly before dusk (8.4m and 8.9m respectively).
Next Week
Weather
With high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north, we will have mostly dry and pleasant weather, with the breeze coming from somewhere between a SW’ly and a NW’ly… generally force 3-4 in the mornings, relaxing to light force 2 by late afternoon. Daytime air temperatures will be close to that of the sea, generally peaking around 18°C. Overnight minima could be on the low side though, generally between 10 and 12°C, but possibly dipping down to 9°C on the stillest and clearest night.
Surf and the Water
Very large spring tides, some of the biggest of the year, but fortunately the weather looks settled. Surf-wise the afternoons will be cleaner than the mornings in general, and the waves will vary between 2 and 5 feet (probably biggest on Tuesday and Wednesday).
The next forecast update will be on Sunday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway