Monday to Wednesday
Weather
A moderate force 4 E’ly wind will bring quite a lot of cloud, with only a few brief sunny intervals. It will be mostly dry but there will be some mid-Channel showers that could drift southwards to affect us at times. If that is the case then it’s most likely in the late afternoons and evenings, particularly on Wednesday. Temperatures will peak at 15-16°C in the daytime and drop to about 12-13°C in the night time, so difference will be minimal. The warmest feelings will probably by in the most sheltered places, such as tall-walled gardens if you have one, or if you’re taking a walk, then it would be on the west coast, down on the sand just beneath the sea-wall.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf on Monday, maybe 1-2 foot by the end of Tuesday, then more definitely 2 feet through Wednesday. The west-coast waves will be cleanish and this is also where the best swimming conditions will be found, so long as you go in around high tide… 7.6m at 11:30am Monday, 7m at 12:40pm Tuesday, and 6.8m at 2:30pm Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
A slightly gentler (probably light force 3) ESE’ly breeze should hopefully bring sunnier skies by day and clearer skies by night, leading to a more beautiful outlook with a slightly greater temperature variation… 16-17°C for the maxima and 10-11°C for the minima. Outdoor activities should generally be a little more comfortable, but thirsty gardens will have to wait a bit longer for what they want.
Surf and the Water
Hopefully some super-clean 2-3 foot surf on Thursday, but likely dropping to 1 foot or perhaps even flat on Friday. Beautiful swimming conditions, along the west coast especially. Low tides will be around 10am Thursday and 11am Friday. High tides will be 7.2m around 4pm on Thursday and 7.7m around 5pm on Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
Through Saturday, the SE’ly wind will increase to fresh force 5, whilst the cloud gradually thickens from a thin white veil of cirrus to the thick grey undulations of altostratus and altocumulus. Rain will then arrive overnight, and by Sunday morning, we will hopefully (the Island needs it) have had the first of many quite thorough drenchings. The most significant deluge is currently forecast for Sunday night, but that is right at the back end of the forecast period, meaning that it comes with the greatest uncertainty. So there is a chance that the majority of that moisture slips slightly east or west of its current projection, but even if that is the case, then the overall shift in the jetstream means that we should definitely snap out of this monotonous dry E’ly.
Surf and the Water
Saturday’s surf will probably increase from flat to 1-2 feet, then Sunday’s surf should be 2-3 feet throughout. Saturday’s waves will certainly be clean if we get some, but the conditions will generally be best for windsurfing or kitesurfing. Sunday’s waves could be super-clean or super-messy, the wind strength and direction is currently very uncertain. Tides will be low around midday, and high around 6am and 6pm (increasing from about 8m on Saturday morning to about 8.9m on Sunday evening).
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway