Thursday
Weather
Maybe a little brightness will filter through the cloud during the morning, but it will generally be an overcast day, with occasional light rain or drizzle. There’s also a possibility of some mist and fog up at the airport around dawn and during the evening (mainly during the evening). Winds will be fresh force 5 SSW’ly, holding temperatures at a mild and muggy 13°C through the daytime, and then only falling to about 8-9°C overnight, when that wind changes to a light force 3 WSW’ly.
Surf and the Water
The surf will increase in size (2 feet to 4 feet) and cleanliness as the day progresses, but obviously the best tides for Vazon will be around breakfast time and lunchtime… high water being 7.4m at 10:20am. The morning will also be best for swimmers (generally on the east coast) and the afternoon will probably be best for windsurfers and kitesurfers (either on the west or the north).
Friday
Weather
A pretty pleasant day, with sunny spells and only the slight chance of one or two showers. Nowhere near as gorgeous as Wednesday though (what a treat that was!), because the WSW’ly wind will increase from light force 3 at dawn to about fresh force 5 by late morning. Head to Town or to Fermain, to get some shelter and feel some relative comfort. The max temp will be an impressive 13°C, but the wind-chill will make it feel like a decidedly ordinary 9-10°C.
Surf and the Water
A whopping swell will develop through the day… 4-5 feet at dawn, 8-10 feet and very powerful by dusk. The cross-onshore wind will be light enough for the west coast early morning, but it will make it messy through the rest of the day. However, it should be reasonably clean and rideable at L’Ancresse, fingers crossed. Swimmers should definitely stick to the east coast. Just like the previous day, tides will be low pre-dawn and post-dusk. High water will be 7.3m at 11:30am.
The Weekend
Weather
There is much uncertainty about the precise track of a vigorous low on Saturday, but the latest expectation is that it will sweep across southern England, giving us strong force 6-7 SSW’ly winds and heavy rain through the late morning and much of the afternoon. The night will then be blighted by a force 5-6 NW, which will bring starry skies punctuated by the odd heavy shower. Sunday looks like a much finer day, with plenty of sunshine, just the chance of one or two showers in the morning, and then a dry afternoon. Sunday’s winds starting off as a force 5-6 NW’ly and then finishing as a light force 3 WSW’ly. Temperatures should peak around 11°C both days. Saturday night will be a bit cooler than Sunday night, but neither of them will be anywhere near cool enough for ground frost.
Surf and the Water
Depending on the precise position of the low-pressure system, the surf will probably (but not definitely) be clean on Saturday. Either way, it’s going to be a solid 8 feet on the west coast in the morning, reducing to 4-6 feet by dusk. Through Sunday the surf will be 3 or maybe 4 feet, and probably very messy in the morning then semi-clean by late afternoon. Tides will be low around dawn and high around lunchtime (7.4m on Saturday and 7.6m on Sunday).
Next Week
Weather
A very unsettled week, with one low pressure system after another, sweeping across the Channel or at least very near by. Meaning spells of heavy rain and strong winds virtually every day and/or night. The winds coming from a variety of directions but mostly either S’ly or W’ly. Temperatures will be on the mild side, but rarely feeling comfortable, due to the strength of those winds. Daily maxima will generally be around 11-12°C, and nightly minima around 7-9°C.
Surf and the Water
The North Atlantic forecast is too changeable to predict the waves with any great confidence, but the current expectation is for Monday and Thursday to be on the small side (although even those days might be big enough to ride). The other days however, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, are looking pretty huge though, probably too big on the west coast for even the most hardcore contingent. We will have some daylight hides tides on Monday and Tuesday (shortly before dusk) but they will otherwise all be in the dark. Low tide will be around 9am on Monday, and that will nudge forward daily, until it is close to 1pm on Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday…
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